12 Days Out, The Red Wave Continues to Build

A slew of new polls, ratings changes, and betting market data are all telling the same story: Republicans are poised to ride a “red wave” to power and take back Congress and key governorships.


A slew of new polls, ratings changes, and betting market data are all telling the same story: Republicans are poised to ride a “red wave” to power and take back Congress and key governorships.

  • Data for Progress, a Democratic pollster, released statewide polls from five battleground states – Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire – all showing a Republican advantage. Republicans led in all 5 states’ gubernatorial contests.
  • For the Senate, Republicans held a narrow lead in Nevada and larger leads in Florida and Wisconsin, while Democrats led in New Hampshire and Arizona was tied.
  • On Wednesday elections handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved five races in Republicans’ favor, rating 218 House seats – the number needed to win the majority – at least Leans Republican for the first time all cycle. They forecast a G.O.P. gain of between 16-24 seats.
  • The Cook Political Report, another elections forecaster, thinks the “wave” may be “more regionalized than nationalized” as Democrats in New York, Oregon, and California pay a “double incumbent penalty” as Democrats are in charge in DC and in these solidly blue states.
  • Cook’s David Wasserman argues “Republicans have the momentum in the race for House Control,” predicting a G.O.P. gain of 12-25 seats thanks to a Democratic collapse in blue states like Rhode Island, even as some red- and purple-state Democratic incumbents are running competitively despite the political environment.
  • President Joe Biden remains “largely on the sidelines” during the home stretch of the midterm elections, even as top White House officials grow more anxious Republicans will recapture one or both chambers of Congress.
  • A Democratic rout would likely lead to big changes in the House Democratic Caucus. Speaker Nancy Pelosi is widely expected to retire rather than become House Minority Leader for the third time. There would likely be pressure for her octogenarian leadership team, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Majority Whip James Clyburn, to step aside as well.

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  • The New York Times wrote “reality is setting in” for Democrats as voters are “poised to punish President Biden’s party even in the bluest parts of America.” Republicans are in contention to win three seats in Oregon, ten Biden-won seats in New York and California, and a Rhode Island district that hasn’t sent a Republican to Washington for three decades.
  • President Joe Biden’s closing argument is all about the economy, reported the Washington Post. The president began warning voters about government shutdowns and alleged Republican desires to cut Social Security and Medicare in a last-ditch effort to stave off defeat.
  • CNN argued Biden’s poll numbers are in “a very bad place” for Democrats. Biden’s job approval is worse at this point in his presidency than any of his recent predecessors. History suggests a low approval rating will “spell doom” for the president’s party, and judging by the historical trends the midterm shellacking could be “even worse than people are predicting today.”



  • The Washington Examiner reported oddsmakers have Republicans favored to take control of both houses of Congress. PrediictIt has the GOP favored to control the Senate with 69 cents per share compared to Democrats’ 34 cents. Politico and FiveThirtyEight’s models have the GOP solidly ahead in the House and the Senate a tossup.
  • National Review broke down the Senate and governors’ races with two weeks ago and found the “red wave is building” in top statewide races. Republicans look favored to pick up Senate and governor’s seats per this analysis, the only question is “how high the tide rises.”
  • The Wall Street Journal zoomed in on Nevada, where inflation’s toll has made this working-class state competitive for Republican candidates running for governor, Senate and House. Nevada Republicans are “in their strongest position in years” due to high prices on rent and gas.

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© Dominic Moore, 2022