Democrats will maintain their majority and control of the United States House of Representatives, but a few races have still not been decided even with candidates conceding. How did House results compare to pre-election expectations?
Summary
More than two weeks after Election Day, some races have yet to be called. While some leads grow, others fade amidst the trickling in of results from absentee and provisional ballots. Most of these races are in New York.
- CA 21 – Incumbent Democratic Representative TJ Cox is fending off former Representative David Valadao, whom Cox defeated in 2018. Valadao had a roughly 3,000-vote lead the day after the 2020 election, which grew slightly throughout the following week. Since then, Cox has cut Valadao’s lead by more than half.
- CA 25 – Republican Congressman Mike Garcia, who won his seat during a special election this May, is holding on to just a 422 vote lead as of Tuesday afternoon. According to The Mercury News, Garcia and his Democratic opponent Christy Smith have exchanged leads as the counting continued for this Southern California seat.
- IA 2 – In Iowa, the race for the 2nd Congressional District is down to a lead of just a few dozen votes. Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is in the lead over her Democratic opponent Rita Hart as the race heads to a recount.
- NY 1 – Incumbent Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin appears to be on track to retain his seat despite the race not yet receiving a call from Politico or the New York Times, which notes he is currently leading by more the 20 points. His Democratic opponent, Nancy Goroff, would have to with 86% of the remaining ballots in order to overtake Zeldin.
- NY 2 – In an open race currently held by retiring Republican Representative Peter King, Andrew Garbarino kept the seat in the GOP column, as his Democrat opponent Jackie Gordon conceded yesterday.
- NY 11 – Incumbent Democrat Max Rose, who made headlines for publicly rebuking New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, conceded last week to Republican challenger Nicole Malliotakis. Malliotakis has been hailed as a rising star among a large group of GOP women elected this cycle. Politico still has not officially called the race as of Thursday morning.
- NY 18 – While incumbent Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney holds a sizeable lead and he claimed victory, the race between Maloney and his Republican challenger Chele Farley has not been called by most outlets. Local newspaper Olean Times Herald reports it is likely Maloney’s lead will continue to grow as counting continues. Maloney is running for chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
- NY 22 – Incumbent Democrat Anthony Brindisi continues to cut into Republican challenger Claudia Tenney’s lead more than two weeks after election day, who currently stands 2,153 ahead of Brindisi. Tenney, a former Congresswoman whom Brindisi defeated in 2018, led Brindisi by 28,000 votes the night of the election.
- NY 24 – While Democratic candidate Dana Balter conceded late last week to incumbent Republican Congressman John Katko, Politico has yet to officially call the race. 2020 was a rematch of 2018 in which Katko defied expectations to hold on to his seat.
- As undecided races mostly fall in Republicans’ favor, CNN’s Editor-at-large Chris Cilizza called the House results for Democrats “bad-bordering-on-disastrous”, especially as experts predicted Democrats would expand their majority.
- NPR characterized the election results by saying Joe Biden “had no coattails for his party” in Congressional races.
- The New York Times details the battle for influence in the House Democratic caucus, saying “progressives and moderates are already warring” over the direction of the party.
- Vox conducted a deep dive in one of their characteristic “explainer” pieces, saying the progressive-moderate split is not the only factor at play.
- The Wall Street Journal reports the House GOP is taking a “victory lap” and plotting its moves to take advantage of this year’s gains and retake the majority in 2022.
- The Hill writes House GOP leadership is looking for the 2020 results to provide a fundraising boost to help with 2022.
- According to the Washington Free Beacon, in Florida, where Democrats were shocked with several House incumbent losses, the infighting has reached down to the statehouse level, with Tallahassee Democrats angered over the easy targets they’ve become by the national party’s progressive wing.
- National Review’s Jim Geraghty writes about the downside of Pelosi’s continuing to lead House Democrats.
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© Dallas Gerber, 2020
