What to Watch For On Election Day

Freespoke’s Election Portal identified key Races to Watch to help you navigate the midterm election returns.


Freespoke’s Election Portal has identified a few key Races to Watch as results come in.

  • Voting in Georgia ends at 7:00 pm ET/6:00 pm CT, among the earliest poll closing times in the country. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is favored over Democrat Stacey Abrams in a race RealClearPolitics rates “Leans Republican.”
  • The Senate contest between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker is a “Toss Up.”
  • Ohio’s polls close next at 7:30 pm ET/6:30 pm CT. The Senate race between Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance, a Republican, and Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan is rated “Leans Republican.”
  • Pennsylvania will start posting results after polls close at 8:00 pm ET/7:00 pm CT. The gubernatorial election is rated Leans Democrat. Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro is favored to win over his Republican foe Doug Mastriano.
  • The open Senate race between Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz and Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is a Toss Up.
  • Polls start to close in the west at 9:00 pm ET/8:00 pm CT. Arizona is home to Toss Up races for governor and Senate. Trump-backed TV anchor Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs, the Democratic secretary of state, are competing to succeed G.O.P. Gov. Doug Ducey.
  • Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is being challenged by political newcomer Blake Masters, a Republican.
  • Colorado’s polls also close at 9:00 pm ET/8:00 pm CT. The Senate race between Democratic incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet and G.O.P. construction company owner Joe O’Dea is rated a Toss Up by RealClearPolitics.
  • Nevada’s Senate race between Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and challenger Adam Laxalt, the Republican former attorney general, will begin reporting results at 10:00 pm ET/9:00 pm CT.
  • The Silver State’s Senate race is rated a Toss Up, as is its gubernatorial matchup of Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak and Republican Joe Lombardo, the Clark County sheriff.

reporting from the left side of the aisle


  • The New York Times flagged three competitive Virginia House races with Democratic incumbents as indicators of whether the election will be “a red ripple, a red wave, a red tsunami” or a “blue riptide.” If Democrats hold all three, they’re having a great night. If VA-02’s Elaine Luria is defeated, it’s at least a red ripple. If Abigail Spanberger in VA-07 also loses, Republicans are in red wave territory. If VA-10’s Jennifer Wexton goes down: red tsunami.
  • POLITICO’s Election Forecast rates the Senate a “Toss Up,” but noted if both parties split the six Toss Up races evenly Republicans would win a 51-49 majority. The House is rated “Likely Republican.” Republicans are favored in 216 seats and only need to win 2 of 26 “Toss Up” seats.
  • CNN selected seven races based on “what they can tell us about the national playing field.” Their list included: Connecticut’s 5th District, Michigan governor, New Hampshire Senate, New York’s 17th District, North Carolina Senate, and Oregon governor.



  • The Wall Street Journal picked Indiana’s 1st Congressional District as a key early indicator of how the midterms will play out. The tight contest between Rep. Frank Mrvan and his Republican challenger Jennifer-Ruth Green for this working-class district on the shores of Lake Michigan will be one of the first races to report results after polls close at 7:00 pm ET/6:00 pm CT.
  • National Review noted Election Day upsets are still possible as every cycle a few candidates who are losing in the RealClearPolitics polling average end up winning on Election Day. Trailing candidates looking for an upset include Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, Derek Schmidt in Kansas, and Blake Masters in Arizona.
  • Fox News covered the final race ratings from respected elections handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Sabato’s analysts predict Republicans will win the Senate, 51-49, by holding Pennsylvania and flipping Georgia. They expect Republicans to net one governorship and gain 24 seats in the House for a 237-198 majority.


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© Dominic Moore, 2022