Republicans Have the Advantage in Battle for House Control

Less than a month before the midterm elections, Republicans have the advantage in the battle for control of the House of Representatives.

Summary

Less than a month before the midterm elections, Republicans have the advantage in the battle for control of the House of Representatives.

• A string of recent polls of House races found Republicans John James and Allan Fung leading in Democratic-held open seats in Michigan and Rhode Island, respectively and G.O.P. candidates tied or narrowly trailing Democratic incumbents in New Hampshire and California.
• Republicans hold a narrow lead on the generic congressional ballot polling average, 46%-45.3%.
• The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $42.3 million in the third quarter, with a “record-setting” $92.3 million cash on hand.
• The Cook Political Report’s House ratings have 211 seats leaning, likely, or solid Republican compared to 191 leaning, likely, or solid Democrat. Cook rates 31 districts as “toss up,” 21 Democratic seats and 10 Republican, but noted “toss up” seats tend to “break decidedly toward one party.”
• Elections handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball is more bullish on Republicans’ chances, with 214 districts rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Republican, just 4 short of the 218 needed for a majority. Democrats must defend more competitive open seats (13) than Republicans (5), a “sometimes-overlooked silver lining” for the G.O.P.
• Democrats have relatively few opportunities to go on the offensive as Republicans are defending only 14 seats in territory Biden won in 2020. To defend their majority, House Democrats must retain all their competitive open seats plus the 12 Trump-won districts currently held by Democrats.
• The Biden Republican districts are natural targets for Democrats trying to preserve their majority, but defeating battle-tested G.O.P. incumbents like Nebraska’s Don Bacon and Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick is no easy feat.

• The New York Times covered House Republicans’ historically diverse slate of 67 minority candidates. Depending on the size of the Republican wave, 2-5 Black candidates and up to 6 Latino nominees could join the House G.O.P. conference come January.
• The Washington Post reported on the “most surprising battleground” for control of the House: New England. Republicans are targeting one seat in Rhode Island, two in New Hampshire, one seat in Connecticut and a Trump-won district in Maine.
• FiveThirtyEight published a deep dive on the fight for Colorado’s new 8^th District in the Denver suburbs. While the seat was drawn to be competitive, local “quirks” and a strong Republican nominee, Barbara Kirkmeyer, has led FiveThirtyEight to predict the G.O.P. will win the district.

• The Washington Examiner covered the two recent polls showing Republican candidate Allan Fung leading the race for Rhode Island’s 2^nd District. If Republicans can win a double-digit Biden seat like Rhode Island’s 2^nd, Democrats are in big trouble.
• Fox News reported House Republicans have vastly out-raised House Democrats ahead of the midterms. The super PAC aligned with House Republicans brought in $73 million in donations in the third quarter of 2022, outstripping the Democrats by $18 million.
• National Review’s Jim Geraghty is seeing signs of a wave building in polling for Senate and House races, where Biden is fundraising and where he’s not campaigning, and changes in media coverage. While Geraghty doesn’t think 2022 will be the “red tsunami” Republicans once hoped for, the country will be in for some kind of “red wave” election.

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© Dominic Moore, 2022