Two Members of Congress Guaranteed to Lose in Tuesday’s Primary Elections

June’s busy month of primary elections wraps up Tuesday with contests in Illinois, Colorado, Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Utah.


Illinois, Colorado, and New York voters will select their nominees for Governor Tuesday, while nearly a dozen House members risk defeat, with two guaranteed to lose.

  • Redistricting in Illinois lumped two sets of incumbents into the same district. Democratic Reps. Sean Casten and Marie Newman are facing off in the 6th District, while Republican Reps. Rodney Davis and Mary Miller, who is backed by Donald Trump, square off in the 15th District. 
  • Oklahoma Republicans will select their nominee for retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe’s seat. Rep. Markwayne Mullin appears to be the frontrunner, although a runoff with state House Speaker T.W. Shannon appears likely. 
  • Illinois Democrats will select their nominees in two open deep-blue Chicago districts. Seventeen Democrats are competing to succeed longtime Rep. Bobby Rush, the only man to defeat Barack Obama in an election (the 2000 Democratic House primary for this seat). 
  • Nonprofit CEO Karin Norington-Reaves, backed by Rush, alderman Pat Dowell, Jesse Jackson’s son Jonathan Jackson, and state Sen. Jacqui Collins are the leading candidates for this black-majority seat on Chicago’s South Side. 
  • Alderman Gil Villegas and state Rep. Delia Ramirez are the leading candidates for the 3rd District, a newly drawn Hispanic opportunity seat in Chicago’s northwest side. 
  • After failing to secure a majority earlier this month, Mississippi Republican Rep. Michael Guest (MS-03) and Rep. Steven Palazzo (MS-04) are fighting for their survival in Tuesday’s runoff votes. 
  • Utah G.O.P. Congressmen Blake Moore (UT-01) and John Curtis (UT-03), Colorado Republicans Lauren Boebert (CO-03) and Doug Lamborn (CO-05), and Illinois Democrat Danny Davis all face primary challengers and could conceivably lose, although there has been little recent public polling data on these races.


reporting from the left side of the aisle


  • POLITICO covered New York’s gubernatorial primaries. Gov. Kathy Hochul seems likely to easily defeat her challengers, centrist Rep. Tom Suozzi and progressive Jumaane Williams. Republicans’ leading candidates are Rep. Lee Zeldin, businessman Harry Wilson, and Andrew Giuliani, Rudy’s son. 
  • The Washington Post reported on Illinois’ battle of the billionaires. Billionaire Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker spent $30 million to attack his leading G.O.P. rival, moderate Mayor Richard Irvin. Irvin’s billionaire-bankrolled campaign has fallen behind surging conservative state Sen. Darren Bailey. Bailey, backed by a third billionaire, Richard Uihlein, is a weaker general election candidate. He picked up Trump’s endorsement and seems likely to win Tuesday. 
  • CNN’s “seven things to watch” on Tuesday included the two Mississippi House runoffs and the Colorado races for governor, Secretary of State, and U.S. Senate, where Republicans could nominate either well-funded conservatives or two 2020 election conspiracy theorists who’ve raised little money.


  • The Washington Examiner profiled Tina Peters, the “surfer [who] may help collapse Colorado’s red wave.” Peters, the Mesa County Clerk, is running for Colorado Secretary of State by promoting 2020 election conspiracy theories. Oh – and Peters is under indictment for an alleged election security breach.  
  • New York gubernatorial candidate Andrew Giuliani spoke with Breitbart. Giuliani pledged to bring his father’s “no-nonsense 1990s governing strategy to Albany.” 
  • National Review picked up on a report that found over 1 million voters have switched to the Republican Party in the last year. Notably, most of these shifts came in well-educated suburbs outside major cities like Denver, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Raleigh, and Cleveland.

On Your Radar

Texas Gov. Abbott lashes out after 46 migrants found dead in tractor-trailer: ‘These deaths are on Biden.’ (Fox News)

More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems (Associated Press)

Democrats spending millions to protect two blue state senators (POLITICO)

The hypocrisy of the Dobbs dissenters (National Review)

The whispers of Hillary Clinton 2024 have started (CNN)

Joe Biden’s approval rating remains at an all-time low of 32 percent (Breitbart)

Biden irked by Democrats who won’t take ‘yes’ for an answer on 2024 (New York Times)

Joe Biden knew about Hunter’s Chinese business dealings, voicemail reveals (Washington Examiner)

Frustration, anger rising among Democrats over caution on abortion (Washington Post)

‘Desperate’: Democrat who’s been in Congress since 1983 goes after ‘people in Washington’ (Washington Free Beacon)

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© Dominic Moore, 2022